Monday, July 19, 2010

The big news

Continues to be the tragedy in the Gulf of Mexico. I have done so much reading, so much digging into various websites and technical data...I am overwhelmed with the knowledge I have gained.

First, the bestest website for real data, interpreted by oil industry professionals:

www.theoildrum.com

Just about anything you want to know about the Macondo 252 and Deepwater Horizon is there, plus detailed information about Q4000 and the many vessels and support operations in the GOM. Through the many discussions there, numerous wild claims have been patiently debunked, or proven true as the case may be. If you chose, you could pick up quite the layman's education in the technical aspects of fluid dynamics, mudding, casings, cements, and so on. It's a great site, their main focus is, of course, the slow slide down after Peak Oil.

In the first week, I caught a news report that cited that the well had a gas content of around 40%. I thought that was very high...and sure enough, it is. Usually content is in the 5% range for oil wells.

Since then, I have watched (along with just about everyone in America and millions more around the world) as events have unfolded. I have tried to reassure online friends who live along the Gulf that eventually Mother Nature will recover. I point out what happened up here in 89 with the Exxon Valdez as an example. It does not help one bit of course, to people whose entire lives are being wiped out a little more each day.

Weeks ago, I saw video showing oil seeping/leaking from the sea floor-not at the actual well head or BOP. Now of course, that has been admitted publicly. Here is where I think a couple of the real dangers lie, given what I have been able to ferret out from various sources:

First and foremost, the methane. Right now, the majority of that gas is held against the sea floor by the cold temperatures and pressures. How much is warmed enough to percolate through the ocean to the surface? No one knows for sure, but reports are alarming to say the least. There's been talk of a "methane explosion" for many weeks now, and I suppose it could happen. The oil and gas mixture, and the Corexit dispersant have surely created a toxic soup of nasties....many many people are sick. And of course, press is being shut out of this part of the story. Rather like their carefully planned photo ops with the press when a politician arrives with fanfare: The beaches are immaculately cleaned just prior to their arrival.

Secondly, the BOP is not maintaining the pressure that they had hoped for. This could mean several things, but the most likely reason is that the bore itself, or the drill stem, has been compromised. When they capped it, it will eventually find another outlet.....it could be the newly reported seeps, or another place. Some geologists have speculated that there could actually be a sea floor collapse, given the composition of the strata. The void created by the escaping gas/oil could create a "cavity" down hole for that scenario. Or the hydrocarbons could migrate to another area altogether, and work its way to the sea floor miles away. No one really knows.

I have heard some pretty wild numbers when it comes to the pressures down hole there, most of them bunk. Around 11,900 psi is the real number. Since I am curious sort, I asked my hub about well pressures up at Prudhoe Bay. I was surprised to discover that a number of the wells up there run in the 10 to 14,000 range. Very very dangerous pressures....even five pounds of pressure can kill someone, if you are in the wrong place at the wrong moment. I am suitably amazed at the technical expertise shown in coping with these pressures, and particularly the skill of the ROV operators.

Along with all of this, we have the Alaska situation, growing more grim by the day. You've been living under a rock if you don't think our economy is tanking here. Our Gov. Parnell shot himself in the foot last week when he refused to divulge the results of the open season for AGIA until after the elections. For, ahem, "logistical" reasons. Yeah sure, Sean, yew betcha. *choke gag*. What a load of hooey, it is our money at risk here, he should darn well release the information as soon as the season closes-about another two weeks.

Former Gov Palin's ACES plan continues to crimp development of our natural resources, and the Salazar moratorium on off shore drilling isn't helping matters. Did you know, a couple years ago that over a dozen exploratory wells were drilled up there? Last year, one. This year: None. Zero, zip, zilch, nada. Since our idiot comissioner Tom Irwin choses not to allow permits, Shell's plans to go forward with exploration has been halted as well. It's not a good situation when you take into consideration that the amount of oil being shipped down the TAPS is dropping by four to six percent a year, every single year.

Also, BP is about to be pillaged. Most people think they have it coming, and they should pay and pay and pay. I don't necessarily disagree with those sentiments. They are planning on selling off some of their North Slope assets to Apache, another oil field company. BP has already laid off many many people up north (which is not making the local press of course) and their contracts are expiring without being renewed. This means, 100s of idle Slope workers just in time for the winter, which is seriously not good. If they sell off everything, the hats will change but I am still optomistic that operations will continue up there, regardless.

And with that, I will close for now.

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